Accueil Blog Victanis | Développement International TIC Tac Trump: An outlook on the impact of Trump's presidency on the TIC sector

TIC Tac Trump: An outlook on the impact of Trump's presidency on the TIC sector

TIC Tac Trump: An outlook on the impact of Trump's presidency on the TIC sector.

TIC Tac Trump: An outlook on the impact of Trump's presidency on the TIC sector

The growth within the Testing, Inspection, and Certification (TIC) sector has been driven by various factors, including accidents, advancements in technology, consumer and environmental demands, global trade considerations, and concerns related to insurance and liability. However, several elements can potentially contribute to a decline in the demand for TIC services. During the initial term of Donald Trump's presidency, 194 regulatory orders were issued. In contrast, 436 deregulatory orders were enacted under Trump’s "One-In, Two-Out" rule. Notable examples of deregulation that have impacted the demand for TIC services include the following:

  • The relaxation of provisions within the National Environmental Policy Act diminished the depth of environmental assessments required before the approval of public infrastructure projects.

  • The reduction of greenhouse gas emission standards for automobiles and light trucks.

  • The termination of the requirement for oil and gas companies to disclose methane emissions.

  • The lessening of mandates for oil and gas firms to monitor and repair gas leaks.

  • The relaxation of regulations governing the management of hazardous chemicals.

The Biden administration has worked to reverse many of the significant environmental rollbacks enacted during the Trump administration, with the most prominent being the rejoining of the Paris Climate Agreement on his first day in office. Nevertheless, with Trump returning to the White House, he has already announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement again, and it is reasonable to expect a continuation of his deregulatory agenda.

The specific impact of these changes on the TIC sector remains somewhat ambiguous. Notably, the rate of newly certified oil and gas inspectors accelerated during Trump's presidency, having remained relatively stable for the previous 6 years. This is due to the rise in land leased to the oil and gas sector, 93% more than in the Obama era, which can be attributed to the numerous deregulatory policies implemented during Trump's administration. However, the decline that followed Biden's inauguration is likely more influenced by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic rather than a transition towards renewable energy or the suspension of new oil and gas leases.

Although Trump's presidency may temporarily reduce the demand for TIC services in certain areas, this demand is expected to increase again when the Democrats next take control. Furthermore, while the complexity and scope of TIC services may decline, the economic growth resulting from deregulation could generate more TIC jobs within emerging/growing companies and industries. For example, should Trump decide to relax federal environmental standards again, it will result in a decrease in audits and inspections concerning emissions and hazardous materials. Furthermore, services related to the green sector may experience a slowdown as green initiatives face increased challenges in competing with carbon-based energy production. Conversely, this scenario will lead to growth in TIC services related to oil and gas operations. Should it follow the trends of his 2016 election, there would be a doubling in the number of inspections conducted for the American Petroleum Institute.

In the forthcoming period, there is anticipated to be an increased focus on export-related TIC, as U.S. exporters will still be required to adhere to foreign regulations. In 2022, U.S. goods exports to the European Union amounted to $350 billion. Beginning in 2026, U.S. firms must collaborate with TIC companies to ensure compliance with the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Notably, the iron and steel sectors, contributing over $40 billion to U.S. exports, will be subject to the CBAM.

An essential issue for consideration is the distinction between state and federal laws. Certain U.S. states, notably California, New York, and Washington, have historically implemented more stringent environmental protection, safety, and consumer rights standards than those mandated by the federal government. This divergence has led to a patchwork of varying standards nationwide. Consequently, a "one-size-fits-all" approach has proven insufficient for navigating state, federal, and international regulation, resulting in an increased demand for TIC consultancy. Likewise, companies that produce goods for the entire United States are inclined to develop a single product that complies with the most stringent standards of any one state rather than creating multiple variants tailored to the different regulatory requirements imposed by various states.

Many companies in the United States increasingly focus on environmental sustainability through voluntary initiatives. These efforts aim to strengthen brand identity and reputation. For example, the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC), which tracks biomass, has experienced a 30% annual growth in the U.S. over the last 4 years, indicating that businesses are eager to promote their commitment to sustainability.

The biggest question is the speed at which Trump can overcome the defences of Biden's implemented policies. At the beginning of 2025, Biden announced an executive action that bans new offshore oil and gas drilling along most of America’s coastline. Trump quickly announced that he would “reverse it immediately”, but under the 1953 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, the area will remain banned until the bill passes through Congress. Although Donald Trump possesses a governing trifecta, he does not control 60 seats in the Senate, which means there remains a possibility of a filibuster to obstruct or postpone his initiatives. It is reasonable to anticipate numerous changes on the first day of his administration. However, the timeline remains uncertain due to the complexities of Senate procedures and the potential for legal disputes.

In summary, the regulatory environment under President Trump’s second term will likely create a patchwork effect for the TIC sector. Federal deregulation may temporarily reduce the demand or depth for certain TIC services, especially around some types of environmental compliance and monitoring. However, global and state-level requirements, voluntary sustainability and ESG initiatives, and growth within the oil and gas sectors will ensure the demand for TIC will remain robust. Rising foreign regulatory standards will continue to compel US exporters to seek specialised TIC services. Likewise, individual states with higher standards and companies eager to maintain strong brand reputations will drive enduring demand for inspection, auditing, and certification. Over the long term, these forces may counterbalance and may outpace any short-term dip associated with federal-level deregulation.

 

Sources : 

https://www.api.org/-/media/files/certification/icp/overview/icp%20home/statistics/icpst_annual_meeting202310_final.pdf

https://www.forbes.com/sites/waynecrews/2021/01/19/status-report-what-regulations-did-the-trump-administration-eliminate-in-2020/

https://www.wri.org/insights/trump-climate-action-setbacks-opportunities-us

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union

https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/01/esg-a-review-of-2024-and-key-trends-to-look-for-in-2025

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/oil-gas-leases-on-public-lands-under-obama-trump-and-biden/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg6dg30vq0o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QV5OwbpJPq8

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2025/jan/13/both-houses-and-a-supreme-court-supermajority-how-trumps-power-compares-historically

https://apnews.com/ap-elections-explained

Marc de Thomasson

Rédigé par Marc de Thomasson